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8/9/2000
edition
Spring Campaigns
We are now right into the full swing of
Spring racing. It can be a very difficult betting time in
Melbourne if you are not careful and very selective like us. There are two very significant reasons:
1. There are plenty of big Saturday
fields with many evenly matched, quality gallopers which
means raffle races - not the ideal scenario for punters
serious about making money from racing compared to
gamblers and social punters who just want to "have a
go".
2. Many horses are being set for future
races well down the track. Their trainers are aiming for
them to peak in races like the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup,
Melbourne Cup, Victoria Derby and Oaks. As long as the
horse is coming along well in its preparation all is fine
for the connections. Any prize money picked up along the
way is a bonus, but not the main priority. As punters,
however, we need to be fully aware that we may be backing
class horses in races where it really doesn't matter
whether the horse wins or not, as long as it is coming
along well in its preparation. It is in those races where
slightly inferior horses can win because they are already
at their peak and have not been set to peak for races
like the Cox Plate.
Might And Power
"Might And Power is clearly the best
horse in the field but resumes from a two year injury enforced spell. Has done
plenty of work and ready to run a mighty race." So wrote Sportsman's
chief Sydney tipster Adam Sherry when making the horse his third selection.
And he was not alone.
In the betting ring Might And Power eased from 6/1 to 16/1.
True odds should have been at least 100/1. What could you expect from the
horse? It was a seven year old resuming from a two year break after a serious
injury. It was handicapped with 60 kilos. It was resuming over an unsuitable
distance, 1350 metres. Even at its peak it was nothing special first up. And
as for doing "plenty of work", well it hadn't even run a trial.
Might And Power got trapped three wide and weakened to finish a well
beaten last. Now there are calls for Might And Power to be retired. As long as the horse
pulled up injury free there should be no problem. After two years off the scene Might And Power
needs a minimum of three or four runs to get some race fitness and also needs
to run over a suitable distance around 2000 metres. If Might And Power is running a poor
last over 2000 metres after four runs in, then there is a
problem.
Next: Punt to Win 1/9/2000
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