8/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Hello Boys under the odds

Last Saturday at Sandown he fell in to win over 1000 metres after a convincing win at his first start 11 days earlier on a Good rated track. The price available last Saturday was $5.50.

Even though it was only an eight horse field that price was poor value. Hello Boys sire was Rory's Jester. The progeny of Rory's Jester are the biggest wet track duffers in the land. If their feet get wet, they melt. The track at Sandown was rain affected - it was Slow.

The percentage of Rory's Jesters who handle a rain affected track is miniscule. Without any knowledge of Hello Boys ability on the wet, $5.50 could not be value. Far less than two out of every 11 Rory's Jesters handle the wet, yet taking $5.50 (the old 9/2) is like saying Hello Boys has a two out of 11 chance of winning. That makes him well under the odds.

Watch those jockeys

In the fifth at Rosehill, a 1200 metres 3YO Open, Ozioziozi was sent out the short $2.80 favourite in the eight horse field. He had won both starts this time in and had an impressive record of four wins and two places from only seven races.

Ozioziozi was freely tipped in the racing media as a well weighted "good thing" with comments like "He's got the same weight as when he won last start. He should be too good for them again."

At his previous start Ozioziozi won carrying 56kg. His jockey was leading hoop Darren Beadman. But last Saturday, after apprentice Michael Squires' two kilos claim, Ozioziozi also carried 56kg. In reality the colt was very poorly weighted. There is considerably more than two kilos difference in the riding skills of Darren Beadman and Michael Squires.

From barrier four not only did Ozioziozi race erratically but he basically finished up racing on the speed three wide throughout and without cover. And I repeat, that from barrier four. He weakened and even missed a place by over two lengths.

In the next race Michael Squires was aboard Marquis, a lightly raced five year old gelding who had won his last start with Brad Stewart riding. Marquis was up considerably in class from a restricted race over 2400 metres to a Listed Handicap over the same distance.

Despite that Marquis was well in the betting starting at $8.50.

In the 11 horse field, from barrier six Marquis was trapped wide. Approaching the first turn Michael Squires had to move forward and take a position. He didn't. As a result Marquis was wide the entire race through total lack of initiative by apprentice jockey, Michael Squires, and weakened right out of the race. The stewards queried the poor ride and reprimanded the jockey.

It pays to watch your jockeys.

"Sires' made for Evander"

That was the headline in last Friday's Sportsman about this media hype horse in the 1400 metres 2YO Group 1 Sires' Produce at Eagle Farm.

The Sportsman's Brisbane "expert" Ray Hickson continued:
"There were no excuses for the beaten brigade behind EVANDER here on May 19. The Octagonal colt sat three and four wide without cover before mowing down Dutch Harry, who had the run of the race, to score comprehensive 0.8L win over this distance. His dam Shame won this race in 1995 and he looks destined to repeat that feat here."

Ray Hickson was not alone. The racing media had declared Evander the winner. The race was just a formality.

Evander was one of the poor value bets last Saturday. Why?

1. Evander, started from barrier nine.
2. Evander only had an average senior rider in Larry Cassidy aboard.
3. In the 15 horse field, and this the key, Evander was showing $2.10 on the tote and only $2.50 in the bookmakers' betting ring.
4. A price of $2.50 meant Evander was given a 40% chance of winning the race. The other 14 runners combined were only given a 60% chance.
5. You only had to objectively look at the form, and not get blinded by all the noise about Evander to realise the odds about Evander were way too short.

At his previous start when Evander won despite being three and four wide without cover his jockey was Larry Cassidy. But at least there was some excuse as Evander had barrier 14.

In the Sires', Evander settled midfield, but was wide throughout and also encountered some bad luck in the straight. John Hawkes did not comment to the media about the performance of Evander and the ride of Larry Cassidy.

Next: Punt to Win 1/6/2001
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