8/2/2002 edition

Form Analysis

Ha Ha - dreaded double whammy

Ha Ha's flop at Warwick Farm last Saturday as $2.80 favourite is well documented. What is not is that Ha Ha also had the handicapping dreaded double whammy - the undoing of many "good things".

The most weight Ha Ha had carried in her seven wins was 55.5kg. But from her last start win in the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast on January 12, Ha Ha rose in weight from 55kg. to 57.5kg. She also had a poor barrier, 10, compared with five.

That is the handicapping dreaded double whammy.
1. A signficant rise in weight from the last start,
plus
2. A poor barrier as well compared to the last start.

At Warwick Farm Ha Ha raced just off the speed, but was four wide. She was losing ground rounding the home turn. End of the race.

These trainers' good things - no thanks

Of the major trainers three stand out when their horses go around at short odds as being very dangerous for punters. They are Gai Waterhouse, John Hawkes and Lee Freedman.

It could well be because they are high profile trainers who very freely talk to the media that punters in their thousands simply latch on to the most favoured horses they train. That of course means horses they train which stand out as strong chances in a race are consistently sent out at well under the odds.

You need to be very sure you are obtaining value for your punting dollar when backing anything they train that is at short odds.

For example, last Saturday in a Group 3 Handicap at Cheltenham the Lee Freedman trained Scenic Warrior looked an excellent chance after a good first up second at Sandown two weeks earlier.

In the 15 horse field Scenic Warrior was sent out at $3.00, way under the odds. The four year old grey gelding raced like a $100 chance, never gave a sight and weakened badly in the straight.

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Money talks
Future winners at big odds
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

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