Beware horses using races as hit-outs

Last Saturday, in a Listed race at Rosehill over 1400 metres, Shogun Lodge carried 60kg. He needed the run to prepare for a big international race at Hong Kong because he hadn't raced for seven weeks.

Despite that he was solidly backed into odds on $1.90 favourite. Jockey Darren Beadman was unable to get a run in the straight. Shogun Lodge was boxed in on the rails with nowhere to go and finished seventh in the 12 horse field.

Punters who took the short odds on Shogun Lodge would have really been heartened to know that connections were very pleased after the run. Shogun Lodge's trainer Bob Thomsen said, "It was like an accidental barrier trial.... in terms of Hong Kong it was a perfect hit-out for him. He's come through the race without any harm. It was certainly a lot better than having him gallop between races on his own."

Ask yourself this: "Does it make any sense to take odds on about a horse winning a race when the trainer is more than happy for the horse just to have a "perfect hit-out"?

The situation was similar at Caulfield. Group 1 Toorak Handicap winner Show A Heart, who was also preparing for Hong Kong was in a pretty average nine horse Open Handicap over 1440 metres

Show A Heart lugged 61kg. and in a battle down the straight just failed to hold off five year old gelding Brodance who was first up from a five months' spell. Brodance paid up to $52.50 for the win!

On the other hand Show A Heart started in the bookmaker betting ring at $2.80 (tote punters at $2.20 were again taking huge unders).

Show A Heart's Queensland trainer Barry Miller said, "I'm happy with that. He had to have that race before Hong Kong and it will do him the world of good."

Are the punters on track who took $2.80 about Show A Heart and the tote punters who took $2.20 "happy with that"?

There is a golden punting rule which should be followed. It will save a lot of money. It is:
Be very wary about taking short odds on a horse winning a race when all the connections want from the horse is a good hit-out in preparation for much richer pickings.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.