7/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Lonhro - no value at all

This smart John Hawkes' trained three year old Octagonal colt was an impressive winner at Group 2 Weight For Age on August 18. He then only carried 49.5kg.

Last Saturday at Randwick, back to a 3YO Quality Handicap he had top weight of 57.5kg. That was a hefty eight kilos weight increase. Of course it would slow down the colt.

In the eight horse field he was sent out the $1.90 favourite. He just held on in a desperately close photo finish. It was a toss of the coin photo. Another stride and he was gone. It also made the New South Wales tote odds of $1.60 for the win look absolutely ridiculous.

Ha Ha - bookies have the last laugh

In the next race at Randwick, an eight horse 3YO Fillies Group 3 set weights event, Ha Ha was sent out the short priced $2.50 favourite ($2.20 on the New South Wales tote). Her only run on a rain affected track resulted in an eight lengths defeat.

That made Ha Ha, a Danehill filly, a big query on rain affected going. Many Danehills do not handle the wet. Ha Ha had also not raced on the Randwick Inner track, the undoing of many good horses.

Despite bad luck in the running - she was shuffled backwards at the 800 - Ha Ha did not look overly comfortable in the going. She never looked like a winner. It was probably only her class which enabled her to finish off the race.

Many punters would have seen those two short priced horses, Lohnro and Ha Ha as a "safe" all up play, a way to create "value" out of poor value bets. Those punters who did ended up with nothing.

It is not possible to create value by going all up from one poor value bet to another poor value bet. Long term that betting and staking strategy must lose.

On our Horse Racing Forum "Lucky Lil" identified both Lonhro and Ha Ha as poor value bets. "Lucky Lil" was right.

Perfect Crime - ignore the run

In the race won by Lonhro he put in an absolute shocker. Perfect Crime is a Marauding colt, and like the Rory's Jester progeny, many of them are wet track duffers. So what was he doing being sent around, without any wet track form, at only $4.00 on the Randwick Inner track in the wet? Was he seriously meant to have a 25% chance of winning?

Perfect Crime was slipping and sliding and his head was dipping. Darren Beadman eased him down. Forget Perfect Crime went around.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
John Hawkes again
Save your money with this tip

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