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Punt to Win |
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7/6/2002 edition Eagle Farm Continued from previous page. 3. Maltese Beauty led all the way to win the second race of the day. It was a 16 horse restricted race over 2200 metres. Maltese Beauty's trainer, Steven Phelps had very astutely ran Maltese Beauty over 1250 metres on May 17 and 1400 metres one week later just to get the eight year old gelding right for the race, his 119th. race start. It's common knowledge that Maltese Beauty is a tear away leader. Whenever there is a tearway leader in a race the field is broken up and the chances of upset results increase. This makes races with tear away leaders much more risky betting propositions. Occasionally the tear way leader will also steal a race at huge odds. That's exactly what happened. Maltese Beauty opened up a huge lead, led by 15 lengths at the 600 and held on to win, paying up to $44.80 on the tote. 4. Popular horses in big, open races at Carnival meetings also regularly start way under the odds. That was the case once again at Eagle Farm. In the 1500 metres Listed Handicap won by Lord Denning, Bails started as $3.80 favourite. It was a wide open 17 horse field. We thought a fair price for Bails was $10.00. Similarly in a Group 2 Handicap over 1500 metres, a wide open 15 horse event, Century Kid started as $5.50 favourite. We thought a fair price for Century Kid was $9.50. We weren't interested in the $325,000 Group 1 3YO Fillies Queensland Oaks run over 2400 metres. It was a 20 filly raffle. Yet Miss Bussell started as the $5.00 favourite. There was no way known she had a 20% chance of finishing first of 20. Mon Meki who paid up to $87.20, and is trained by the astute Gerald Ryan at the Gold Coast, won the race. She had good form in Class 3 company, but on standard weight ratings was around 10 kilos inferior to the main chances. With 3YO Fillies over 2400 metres much more than computerised weight ratings is needed to find the best chances. Which goes to show just how tough the race was. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites
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