7/3/2003 edition

Northerly Beaten
Was it a Shock?

Last Saturday champion 6YO gelding Northerly carried top weight of 60kg. in the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield, a Listed race over 2020 metres run under quality handicap conditions. It was a small field of six.

This is what Shane Templeton, had to say in the Herald Sun, Saturday, March 1, 2003, in his column "Midnight Oil":

"NONSENSE race and should have been the first. NORTHERLY (1) will trounce them. MR TRICKSTER (6), dropping down to 51kg. might be the exacta horse with the tough, consistent GUNNAMATTA (2), coming off his Mornington Cup win, the next best.
VALUE BET: Nil"

However, it is precisely because punters believe a horse "will trounce them" that they end up taking poor odds that are big unders. Maybe Shane Templeton should have been just a little more careful and written "If Northerly runs to his best he will trounce them." From experience we all know that horses don't always run to their best - and it's particularly irritating if our money's on.

Mr. Trickster, who only carried 51kg., was able to lead throughout and win. Northerly, who slipped on the track, which was affected by showers throughout the day, put in a strong Australia Cup preview and finished a good second.

On Sky Racing after the race we were amazed at the comments that led you to believe that Northerly's defeat was a massive upset. It was not.

Northerly started as $1.30 favourite. On those odds Northerly was given a 23% chance of losing. It's fair to say, given Northerly's record of losses in handicaps, that bookmakers had Northerly under the odds and believed Northerly had a significantly greater chance of losing than just 23%.

So why the shock that Northerly lost? Mathematically it was quite a reasonable expectation. Mr. Trickster started third favourite at $9.00. There's usually no shock when a horse wins at $9.00, so why all the surprise?

(It's also interesting to note that thankfully there was not that much watering of Caulfield Racetrack early in the week, with attention being paid to the weather forecast of rain later in the week. Maybe commonsense will prevail with track preparation in Melbourne.)

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting exchanges - bettors' bonanza
Was Northerly's defeat such a betting shock?
Trifecta betting tips
Australian Cup prepost betting odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Brisbane bookmakers, tight betting odds
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/2/2003
Punt to Win index

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