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Punt to Win |
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7/3/2003 edition Trifecta Betting Tips Let's see if there was any value taking a trifecta or other form of bet in Northerly's race, a six horse field with Northerly a $1.30 favourite. As Northerly finished second all poor value bets based upon Northerly winning lost. They would have all been big unders if Northerly won and not worth taking. The only possible way was to carefully bet against Northerly. Mr. Trickster started at $9.00, which meant there must have been some support for it. Suppose you chose to bet against Northerly and chose Mr. Trickster, who paid up to $11.80 on the tote for the win. You could bet Mr. Trickster outright for the win with the bookmakers and get at least $9.00 or take your luck on the tote. You could have also taken Mr. Trickster to win in a trifecta because of the possibility of a bonanza collect should Northerly miss a place. If you took Mr. Trickster to win with the other five horses to run second and third in a trifecta your return on SuperTab, using $1.00 units, would have been $50.90 for an outlay of $20.00. That is equivalent to getting $2.55 about Mr. Trickster winning! Northerly finishing second destroyed that trifecta. Clearly that is not the way to bet. But if you took Mr. Trickster to win, with the other horses, minus Northerly, to run second and third you could be in line for a bonanza collect. The outlay would be $6.00 with 50 cents units or $12.00 with $1.00 units. To cover yourself in case Northerly ran second you would also take an exacta for Mr. Trickster to win with Northerly to run second. (It's no use selecting Mr. Trickster, the winner of the race, then not collecting because your trifecta combinations don't come in.) The exacta paid $15.30. If you put $12.00 on the exacta, while you missed out on the trifecta, for your total outlay of $18.00 which included $6.00 for the trifecta with 50 cents units, you would have returned $183.60 which is equal to $10.20 for a dollar. If your total outlay was $24.00, which included $12.00 for the trifecta with $1.00 units and $12.00 for the exacta, your $183.60 return would now be equivalent to $7.65 for the dollar. Either way, you have got a substantially higher return than the punter who chose the simple Mr. Trickster/field/field trifecta. If you just outlaid the $18.00 you made a profit of $165.60. The punter who chose the simple Mr. Trickster/field/field trifecta outlaid $20.00 and made a profit of only $30.90. You had the same combinations covered, made an extra $134.70 profit and you also outlayed $2.00 less. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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