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Punt to Win |
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7/2/2015 edition Horse Racing Betting Tips Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for: Horse Racing Betting Tips Creating value from short priced favourites Whenever there are short priced horses that media tipsters think "can't lose" they usually advise an all-up mugs' bet to "create value." For example if there are two $2.00 short priced favourites in consecutive races it is often suggested to go all up to obtain value. If both horses are paying $2.00 for the win, a $10 wager on the first horse will give you $20 when it wins. Place the $20 on the next "good thing" at $2.00 and when it wins you have turned your initial outlay of $10 into $40, which is like backing a $4.00 winner. Sounds simple, doesn't it. Unfortunately, in real life it doesn't work like that. The problem was that $1.65 favourite Some Are Bent ran third, beaten more than 10 lengths by the upset $21.40 tote winner, Spanish Symbol. Put simply, taking $1.65 about a jumper winning a steeple chase over 3700 metres in a field of 12 horses is absurd. When you take under the odds, which at $1.65 Some Are Bent most definitely was, it is usually impossible to "create value" by going all up with another favourite, definitely so if it's also a short priced favourite also under its true winning odds. It's just as stupid advice as telling you to create value going all up black into red when playing roulette. Sure, if you are successful you will have turned a $10 bet into $40 and made a profit of $30. Instead of a $2.00 winner you have got $4.00. But because you are still getting under the odds about each bet, you are on a guaranteed way of losing money long term, notwithstanding the occasional success when $10 becomes $40. Just Register for the Forum: This edition of Punt to Win: Our tipsters have had some fantastic winning days in the past such as: Lucky Lil's tips have found winners which win again at value:
On Saturday, 19th. July 2014, our tipster Lucky Lil gave 4 tips with Evangelist a fantastic winner at Rosehill with $16.00 available on track! On Saturday, 23rd. November, 2013, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!! Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for: 2014 Melbourne Cup Day
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