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7/1/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 31st. December.

Canterbury: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Havana Wind
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Moonee Valley: Track Good

R2 $50,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sojustrememberthis
Result: first

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R3 $50,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: California Dane
Result: first

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R4 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: It's Picnic
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Stephen Theodore
Winner: True Courser
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Darren Weir

Doomben and Morphettville: Click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - fitness, lightly raced horses & strike rates
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 17/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields - 24/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Canterbury & Moonee Valley, 31/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Doomben & Morphettville, 31/12/2005
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track, 17/12/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 24/12/2005 - Warwick Farm and Sandown
Betting tips from the track, 31/12/2005 - Canterbury and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2005
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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