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7/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Sunday, December 26.

Randwick: Track Good
R1 $42,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dress Suit
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Pizza
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R4 $42,000 3YO and upwards. Horses & geldings. Rs2Sc. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Winning Master
Result: first
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Caulfield: Track Good
R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Secateurs
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Michael Guthrie
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Cheltenham: Track Good
R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sparkling Now
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Darryl Hewitt

This edition of Punt to Win:
Is place only betting value?
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields - 18/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 26/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 1/1/2005
Betting tips from the track, 18/12/2004 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 26/12/2004 - Randwick and Caulfield
Betting tips from the track, 1/1/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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