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6/10/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here is the result from Saturday, 29th. September.

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $15,000 3YO. Class 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bundle O' Gold
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Paul Seater
Winner: Real Belele
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Louise Morgan
Trainer: David Hayes


Here are the results from Saturday, 22nd. September.

Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $7,700 Maiden. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Magical Joker
Result: first

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: B. W. Brown
Winner: Kick 'n Chase
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.50

R4 $17,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Noble Gaze
Result: first

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Rob Heathcote


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $18,000 3YO and upward. Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Force Nine
Result: first

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Gandini
Result: first

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mont Fay
Result: first

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis: "Winning Money is Easy."
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Trainer and Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/9/2007 & 22/9/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/9/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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