6/10/2000 edition

1000 metres raffles

I was speaking to a successful punter called Chris the other day and we got talking about 1000 metres races. Chris said he never backs horses in 1000 metres races. He said he has learnt from bitter experience that form does not hold up in those races. So I thought I'd have a look at the results over that distance at Moonee Valley and Warwick Farm on Saturday September 30, 2000.

At Moonee Valley on the improving Dead track Miss Kournikova won the 3YO Fillies Open first up at 5/2. Her only other race was six months earlier when she bolted in on Slow going. A wet tracker? Maybe. You had to take her on trust on Saturday.

The Open Handicap was won by Mr. Bombastic at 12/1. Seven of the 13 runners, including Mr. Bombastic, were first up from a spell. Mr. Bombastic had a great strike rate with 10 wins and another seven placings from only 28 starts but had never won first up in five attempts. More importantly he had never won under 1200 metres and connections gave every indication that the distance was too short by only starting him twice at 1000 metres.

My questions are," Can you even talk about using form to make a selection or create ratings when half the field are first up? Surely anything you come up with will be nothing more than guess work?" To win at racing long term you need to do much better than rely on guesswork.

At Warwick Farm on a Good track a field of seven contested a restricted 3YO Colts and Geldings event. The winner was Gelignite Jack, one of two first up runners in the race, starting at 10/1. He had only raced four times but did have a convincing five lengths win at his first start, a weaker 2YO Hawkesbury Open a year ago on a rain affected Slow track over 900 metres.

Sure, three races are not conclusive. But they do show how difficult and unpredictable 1000 metres races are. Chris may well be right when he says you should never bet in them.

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