6/4/2001 edition

More Punt to Win Tips

We told you

Two weeks ago in Punt to Win we wrote:

"Universal Prince - what's so special?

There is nothing special about a horse because he settles well back last and storms home over the top of the field to win like Universal Prince did in the Group 1 Canterbury Guineas on Saturday night.

Those finishes catch the eye. That is all.

If Universal Prince had settled behind the leaders and had what the media call an "easy run " or "run of the race" and then won by nearly three lengths he would not have received anywhere near the same attention."

Last week in Horse Watch we wrote:

"The media all latched on to the winner of the race. How could anyone miss Universal Prince's finishing burst from well back last to win the race?

As we pointed out in last week's Punt to Win there is nothing special about Universal Prince's win from a betting point of view at all. Except that Universal Prince will start at short odds next start and need things to go right to win.

The racing media did not point out that Danamite's run was every bit as good, if not better than Universal Prince's run. Universal Prince had the edge in race fitness over Danamite who also covered plenty of extra ground. If Danamite had drawn a decent barrier there is every likelihood he would have won the race."

How right we were. Sure enough, all last week, all the media talk was about how Universal Prince was an absolute moral in last Saturday's $460,000 Group 1 Rosehill Guineas. You'd have thought there wasn't another horse in the race.

Universal Prince was sent out at the short odds of $1.80. That was absolutely crazy. Universal Prince settled well back last and things didn't go right for him in the straight. Punters lost hundreds of thousands of dollars backing him.

There were many better bets in the race such as Danamite who started at $8.00 and was pipped on the post, Hit The Roof, who again put in a bold run, Zero Rules, who was disappointing, and the winner, Sale Of Century who paid $27.10 on the New South Wales tote and was well rated by us.

Our members who used our ratings to back value winners would have had a few dollars on Sale Of Century.

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Loyal Victorian tote punters hit for six

Isn't it amazing how tote punters are loyal to horses when those horses travel interstate? Even when the horse has done nothing to deserve it. Even if it means costing them money.

Bello Signor, a consistent money muncher for Victorian punters, with only four wins from 30 starts, went to Sydney and contested a Listed 1900 metres race there.

He was a surprise winner of the open race. Victorian tote punters were rewarded for their loyalty by the SuperTab dividend of $9.50. By contrast on the New South Wales tote the dividend was $14.80.

More short odds

Talking about horses going around at short odds what was Lolita Star doing at $2.80 in the Adelaide Guineas? Once the media started pushing the filly as a weight certainty (she dropped 6kg. from her outstanding first up run) the value vanished. We wanted to back her, but at $3.70 ( the old 11/4, not 7/4 ).

Century Kid - what a jockey change will do

He was the best of good things beaten at his previous start two weeks ago when we backed him. He was travelling very comfortably on the pace and Glen Boss never got a run on him. Put on Jim Cassidy and despite drawing the widest barrier in the field, 13, he won easily starting at $5.00.

Mowerman, another case of what's going on?

He looked a strong bet at $4.00 in the 3YO Listed Handicap at Rosehill won by Century Kid. Mowerman had two runs in from a spell, looked very good in his last start second in a similar race over 1100 metres at Canterbury and had put in top rating performances. It was reasonable to expect an even higher rated run.

He had a good record at the track and could handle the distance. He also dropped a kilo in weight to 56kg. and had a much better barrier, six, compared to 10 at the tight Canterbury track.

Yet he finished a disappointing fifth, beaten by three lengths.

That is why racing is very much a long term betting proposition. When you are dealing with probabilities you can have unlucky statistical runs. Similar analysis, of course taking into account the opposition, will at other times produce a run of nice priced winners.

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Assertive Lad - what is going on?
What a plunge!

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