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6/2/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 31.

Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Extagonal
Result: first
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: John Hawkes

Flemington: Track Slow
R2 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Demerger
Result: first
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.30
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R2 $30,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2112 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Listen Pal
Result: second
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctation: $2.25
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: John Wallace
Winner: Pistol Knight
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Carl Spry
Trainer: Shaun Dwyer

Morphettville: Track Good
R2 $23,000 Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Easy Virtue
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.00
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Nigel Blackiston
Winner: Swiss Vault
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Stuart Gower

This edition of Punt to Win:
To bet or not to bet
Horse racing betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/1/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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