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5/11/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. October.

Flemington Victoria Derby Day: Track Good

R2 $200,000 3YO. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Queen Of The Hill
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Jet Spur
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: John O'Shea

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Individual
Result: third
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Princess Gemma
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Terry Jones
Trainer: Mario Caitabiano

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 2008 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tingirana
Result: second
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Jeremy Gask
Winner: Shanikov
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Joe Hall

R4 $23,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Open Cut
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Makybe Diva wins the Melbourne Cup in 2003, 2004 and 2005!
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Flemington Victoria Derby Day
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 29/10/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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