5/11/2005 edition

Makybe Diva Makes Melbourne Cup History!

What an incredible achievement by the champion 7YO mare Makybe Diva to create Melbourne Cup history by becoming the first horse to win three consecutive Melbourne Cups!

The big issue coming into the race was whether the mare would be able to win with top weight of 58kg., which would be a new weight carrying record for a mare, after a successful preparation aimed at winning the Group 1 Cox Plate, the Weight for Age championship of Australasia.

On some facts and figures Makybe Diva faced a huge challenge.

For example she was meeting Eye Popper 6.5kg. worse at the weights for being defeated three lengths by that horse over 3,200 metres in Japan, the same distance as the Melbourne Cup. In addition, Eye Popper had come out and run an outstanding second in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, a race with the history of being one of the best guides to Melbourne Cup winners.

But as Makybe Diva's trainer, Lee Freedman pointed out, Makybe Diva's two runs in Japan should be ignored. The mare was many, many lengths below her best, and never settled in due to the stabling arrangements. In Japan she was stabled most of the day unlike in Australia at the Freedman's property, where she was able to be freely roam a large paddock. It must make you wonder why Makybe Diva was even taken to Japan.

Eye Popper failed badly in the Melbourne Cupafter being given every chance. Makybe Diva won with such authority it made the $4.60 bet about her by the bookmakers look way over the odds - after the event!

If ever there is a betting lesson to be learnt it is that champiuons defy the odds. In addition it pays to dismiss some form. Makybe Diva was in peak form coming into the Cup. That meant its Japanese formlines were irrelevant.

Punters and form analysts who took those form lines seriously would have given Makybe Diva virtually no chance of winning the Melbourne Cup. That was absolutely ridiculous. Makybe Diva had to be one of the best winning chances going into the Cup - it was just a matter of whether before the race you liked the odds on offer.
 
Makybe Diva won the Melbourne Cup at the official boomaker starting price of $4.40. The official boomaker top fluctuation odds were $4.60. Compare that with tote odds of just $3.60 on SuperTab and $3.80 on UniTab.

On this site we have regularly indicated that if you want to win more money, particularly betting on Melbourne and Sydney racing, then you cannot restrict yourself to betting on the tote. The most favoured horses in the betting - the horses that win the most races - are generally much better odds with the bookmakers.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Makybe Diva wins the Melbourne Cup in 2003, 2004 and 2005!
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Flemington Victoria Derby Day
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/10/2005
Punt to Win index

2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

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