5/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Epsom Handicap - raffle race, betting wipeout

The 1400 metres Group 1 Epsom Handicap held at the Randwick Inner Track last Saturday was a shocking betting affair. It was an absolute raffle race with just about every one of the 14 runners having some realistic winning chances. When that happens punters invariably take unrealistically short odds about some of the favoured runners, because the odds on offer seem to be "value".

The $6.00 for favourite Century Kid and $6.50 for second favourite Spinning Hill were not value in such a wide open race. Between them they did not have a 32% chance of winning the race while the other 12 runners had only a combined 68% winning chance - an average of less than 6% winning chance for each runner!!

Century Kid finished eleventh and Spinning Hill twelfth. The winner at $51.00 was six year old gelding Final Fantasy. He was difficult to place in your top chances because of the strong recent form of so many other runners in the race. But that did not mean he was not a genuine winning chance. It was that sort of race. He was certainly no slouch having won over $400,000.

He did finish second by a half neck and in front of Sunline at Group1 Weight for Age over 1600 metres in April this year at Randwick and followed that run by a strong fourth in the Group 1 Weight for Age Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000 metres at the same track. He was then sent for a spell.

First up on September 8 he finished eleventh in a Group 2 Handicap, but was less than three lengths away from the winner, outstanding Shogun Lodge. Second up in the Epsom three weeks later and the rest is history.

Some punters I have met will not back horses second up from a spell. The horseracing media myth about horses performing poorly second up has certainly got to them, hasn't it? The majority of horses will perform at a higher rating level second up from a spell because they are fitter as a result of their first up run.

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