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5/6/2010
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Moonee Valley horse racing track on Saturday, 29th. May, 2010.
Moonee Valley
Track: Slow.
Rail: True position.
Penetrometer: 4.86
R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Flokkati
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Our Baby Bonus
Days since last start: 127
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price
R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Beyond Pardon
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 3000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Black And Bent
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Bird Of Fire
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 9-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Tony Vasil
R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Eight Bills
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Gary Portelli
R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Belscenica
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Noonan
R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Altitude
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Comments:
It was a good day for favourites punters with four winners from the eight favourites. Two of the four winning favourites - Black And Bent and Altitude - were last start winners, one winning favourite, Beyond Pardon, finished second at its previous start while in R2 the other winning favouite Our Baby Bonus won at the short odds of $1.75 after a spell of 127 days. In R5 and R7 both favourites, Bird Of Fire and Belscenica dropped back 200 metres in distance. Neither won. However in R4 Black And Bent jumped up in distance 600 metres from 2400 metres to 3000 metres and won.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips to win money wagering on horse racing
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track and Distance Specialists' horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/5/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/5/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/5/2010
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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