5/5/2012 edition

Horse Racing
Betting on Horses Dropping Back in Distance

Betting on horses dropping back in distance in their current campaign from 1400 metres to 1200 metres and from 1200 metres to 1000 metres is usually a very risky proposition. A world champion like Black Caviar can do this and win. But even for your average Group 1 winner dropping back in distance is a very tough ask.

Whenever we think about taking shortish odds about a horse dropping back in distance, we like to remind our self of this example of punter mania back from early 2006.

What was the 4YO gelding Babinda Half doing being sent out a $1.75 favourite in the fifth at Eagle Farm, a 1000 metres sprint?

Only two weeks earlier Babinda Half won at Eagle Farm over 1350 metres.

Put very simply, how do you expect to get a horse up and running and trained properly to win a race over 1350 metres then back up just two weeks later over the sprint distance of 1000 metres?

Punters fell for it too. They must have used the false logic that if trainer Robert Bradshaw entered Babinda Half in the race then he had the gelding ready to sprint. It's just not so simple.

Punters taking the ridiculous unders saw Babinda Half lead but then weaken and finish a well beaten second to Algorithm. After all, Babinda Half had to set a much faster pace in a 1000 metres sprint when leading all the way in a leisurely clip over 1350 metres. You can't lead all the way over 1000 metres at the same leisurely pace.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on horses droppng back in distance
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improvers free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 28/4/2012
Group 1 horse racing results:: 21/4/2012 & 14/4/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/4/2012 & 21/4/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/4/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 14/4/2012
Punt to Win index

2011 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners under $10.00
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

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