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5/5/2007 edition
Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class,"
to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly
we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above
the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how
handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse
will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety
vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly
with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
The table below shows how horses
that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting
ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.)
We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information
over the long term.
|
Morphettville - 28/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Exalted Ego |
59.5kg. |
1 |
1600 |
$4.00fav. |
4/9 |
|
Eagle Farm - 21/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Sequential Charm |
59kg. |
2 |
1000 |
$9.00 |
4/13 |
|
Ice Chariot |
59.5kg. |
12 |
1600 |
$11.00 |
7/15 |
|
Morphettville - 21/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Royal Ida |
59.5kg. |
14 |
1100 |
$7.50 |
4/17 |
|
Randwick - 14/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Mustard |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1200 |
$9.50 |
4/10 |
|
Fooram |
60kg. |
2 |
1600 |
$9.50 |
2/13 |
|
Hassle |
59kg. |
7 |
1600 |
$7.50 |
10/13 |
|
Randwick - 7/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Newton's Rings |
60kg. |
1 |
1400 |
$5.00 |
5/5 |
|
Caulfield - 7/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Bel Danoro |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1000 |
$7.00 |
5/8 |
|
Let Go Thommo |
59kg. |
3 |
1000 |
$3.40fav. |
4/8 |
|
Eagle Farm - 7/4/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Bikkie Tin Blues |
59kg. |
2 |
1806 |
$3.70fav. |
2/12 |
|
Hello Possums |
59kg. |
7 |
1806 |
$7.00 |
3/12 |
|
Rosehill - 24/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Falaise |
59kg. |
2 |
1200 |
$2.40fav. |
3/6 |
|
Caulfield - 24/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Zipping |
60.5kg. |
2 |
1700 |
$2.15fav. |
2/8 |
|
Cheltenham - 24/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Navy Shaker |
59.5kg. |
4 |
1310 |
$5.00 |
10/13 |
|
Rosehill - 17/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Malcolm |
59kg. |
4 |
1300 |
$2.00fav. |
1/6 |
|
Newton's Rings |
59kg. |
3 |
1300 |
$6.50 |
4/6 |
|
Grand Zulu |
59.5kg. |
3 |
1900 |
$9.00 |
2/10 |
|
Eagle Farm - 17/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Algorithm |
59.5kg. |
1 |
1000 |
$3.70fav. |
1/11 |
|
Randwick - 10/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Court Command |
61kg. |
5 |
1100 |
$7.50 |
5/9 |
|
Storm Alert |
59kg. |
7 |
1200 |
$4.40 |
3/9 |
|
Caulfield - 10/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Zipping |
62kg. |
2 |
1400 |
$4.20eq.fav. |
4/12 |
|
Warwick Farm - 3/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Mystery City |
59kg. |
6 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
2/6 |
|
Lantwin |
59.5kg. |
5 |
1400 |
$4.60 |
2/6 |
|
Malcolm |
59kg. |
1 |
1200 |
$7.00 |
7/12 |
|
Caulfield - 3/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Flame Of Sydney |
59kg. |
3 |
1400 |
$6.50 |
5/12 |
|
Doomben - 3/3/2007 |
|
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
|
Mitanni |
59kg. |
12 |
1200 |
$4.00fav. |
2/13 |
| |
This edition of Punt to Win:
Is this betting value?
Get those betting odds
The New Trainer Winning Bolters horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/4/2007 and 21/4/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 28/4/2007 and 21/4/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/4/2007
Punt to Win
index
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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