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5/3/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 28.

Randwick: Track Slow
R1 $50,000 3YO and upward. Transition. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Taikun
Result: first
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bart Cummings

Caulfield: Track Good
R6 $400,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Equal Favourite: Reset
Result: first
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Equal Favourite: Vocabulary
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Mick Price

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R2 $25,000 Fillies and Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hialeah Star
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Tony Sears
Winner: Chicken Little
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Alan Bailey

Morphettville: Track Good
R4 $40,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Brannigan
Result: second
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $4.50
Jockey: Darren Holland
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Prancelot
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
John Hawkes, racehorse trainer wipeout
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/2/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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