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4/10/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 27th. September.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Rhyno Chaser
Result: first

Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Kevin Moses

R4 $200,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dreamscape
Result: first

Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Doomben: Track Good

R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Papal Joy
Result: third
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: Brian Wakefield
Winner: Athenas Gift
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2020 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Eskimo Dan
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Bevan Laming
Winner: Scattergun
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Brian Smith

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do tote odds beat bookmaker betting odds?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The New Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 27/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 20/9/2008 & 13/9/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 27/9/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 20/9/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 13/9/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/9/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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