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Punt to Win |
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4/7/2003 edition Best Betting Value? Where is the best betting value? Here is a very relevant post in our Horse Racing Forum from "osulldj". It was posted on the 29th. June this year. "...It's a fact that on average across all races, horses at the shorter end offer better value than longer priced horses. What I mean by value is that the shorter the average price of a group of runners, the narrower the gap between actual and 'should be' strike rate. This is what's termed a favourite-longshot bias in the market and it exists in horse race markets worldwide. Of course within any price group there will be individual horses that are poor value and others that are good value. The other advantage of betting at the shorter end is that you have a higher strike rate and much less variance, which is extremely important from a betting and psychological standpoint. Despite this the key is to only bet in situations where you think you have an advantage. If you can't state clearly why this is a profitable situation for you to bet in then you should keep your money in your pocket." Comment: How true. Put simply, horses at $2.00 win closer to 50% of the time compared to horses at $4.00 winning 25% of the time. But horses at $4.00 win closer to 25% of the time than say horses at $10.00 winning 10% of the time. If you can find strong bets at the shorter end of the market plus make sure you get top odds about them - don't rely on the tote, because you will get huge unders, particularly with Melbourne and Sydney Saturday racing, then you are in there with a real chance. Currently you can use betting exchanges and of course get top fluctuation bookmaker betting odds. We have devised a Super Specials selection method for horses we assess as very strong winning chances. On the 21st. June there was one bet with Masked winning at $2.10 and we followed up on the 28th. June with one bet again - this time Evil Master won starting at $5.00. Amazing odds considering our unadjusted price was odds on $1.95. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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| Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk. | |||