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4/6/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, May 28.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sumac
Result: equal third/fourth
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Doubloon
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes

Doomben: Track Good

R1 $40,000 Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dane Fever
Result: third
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Renouf
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning form is good form
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 28/5/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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