4/5/2001 edition

Bet to Win

Simple guidelines to selecting winners

The Fillies and Mares Group 2 Emancipation Stakes was run over 1600 metres last Saturday at Randwick. It looked like a very poor betting race on paper. However, it was quite easy to sort out.

Six of the 12 runners were dropping back sharply in distance from at least 1900 metres. They would have to be very good to win.

Another runner, the John Size trained Air D'Amor was jumping up sharply in distance second up from 1200 metres. She did have a good record at the track and at the distance, however she looked way out of her depth, started at $31.00, and that was how it panned out.

So that is seven of the runners dismissed.

Of the other five runners you could dismiss as serious winning chances Miss Zoe ( one win from 21 starts), Crestfallen (a solid performer but only six wins from 40 starts), and Frivolity (beaten by eight lengths in her previous race and started at $81.00).

That leaves you with two candidates.

One Under was pushed in the media as a value bet. This four year old mare was up massively in weight by 7.5kg. to 57.5 kg. on her fourteenth in the Doncaster Handicap two weeks earlier, and also had a wide barrier,10. She was also poorly handicapped compared to her 53kg. in a Group 1 Fillies and Mares race two starts back.

One Under was trapped out wide early, worked hard carrying her big weight to get a position and settled outside the leader by the 800. She was gone on the home turn. Keep backing media tips like that and you won't be one under, you'll be six under!

This leaves you by default with Heather, regularly unlucky because of her racing style where she always comes from the rear of the field. However she was fit with four runs in from a spell. Two starts earlier she was only beaten by one and a half lengths in a 1500 metres Fillies and Mares Group 1 race and at her previous start just over two lengths in a 1500 metres Fillies and Mares Group 2 race.

She won by over a length and started at $7.00. Poppett, the $3.30 favourite was having her eighth run in her current campaign and had dropped back in distance from 1900 metres at her previous start 16 days earlier.

Weight rise plus negative barrier change = poor bet

Punters regularly ignore this simple punting rule. Occasionally they back a winner. More often than not they have thrown their money away.

At the Doomben 1615 metres, a very tricky start with only around 50 metres to the first sweeping turn, it is important to draw a good barrier. Punters didn't seem to be too concerned about that when they took only $4.00 about Carbrecel who had barrier 12 in the 13 horse field and also rose in weight from 50kg. to 54.5kg.

To try and overcome the terrible barrier, jockey Jim Byrne settled Carbrecel well back in the field. Punters were never on a winning chance, but did watch their money fly home for second, beaten two lengths by our Special, Fetes Galantes who eased in the betting from $3.20 to $3.80. So much for betting ring movements.

Universal Prince does it again

Punters thought three year old hype colt Universal Prince was a good thing to take out the A.J.C. Australian Derby and Queen Elizabeth Stakes double. They plunged him from very much under the odds at $3.00 and to an even sillier price of $2.60 in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He again let punters down. In the 14 horse field he finished tenth.

The race was won by Shogun Lodge who at $3.50 was also no value and had to survive a protest from Brian York, jockey of the unlucky John Size trained El Mirada who finished third, beaten by only a length.

The protest was dismissed because of the winning margin. However, Shogun Lodge's jockey, Glenn Boss was fined $10,000 and suspended from April 30 to May 14.

Momentum is very important in horse racing. Horses travel approximately six lengths a second. El Mirada lost momentum and it doesn't take much to cost a horse at least a length.

Next: Punt to Win 27/4/2001
Three pages crammed with horse racing, punting and betting tips.

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