4/5/2001 edition

Bet to Win

Following the herd

After winning by over four lengths at the Gold Coast on March 17, at his next start on April 7 promising three year old gelding Clay Shaker started at the generous odds of $13.00 and in a very tight finish won a 3YO Open at Doomben . After that win the punters jumped on him and sent him out as $2.50 favourite at Doomben last Saturday. He finished second. I wonder how many of those punters took the $13.00 three weeks earlier?

Big fields, risky bets

Following a very convincing first start win, two year old colt Lacryma Bay went to Doomben and had a bit of a boom on him in the 2YO Open sprint over 1020 metres. His jockey, Cyril Small, of Vo Rogue fame, made one of his occasional visits to the city to ride him.

Lacryma Bay, who started at $2.50 put a length on the field as soon as they jumped. Problem was Lord Rutherford, who started at $31.00, decided to attack him for the lead. A hectic pace was set. Lord Rutherford folded and finished last beaten by 20 lengths. Lacryma Bay battled on well for third, beaten by nearly two lengths.

There were only 11 horses in that race. But the principle is the same. The bigger the field, the more risk the best horses have from loose cannons, horses with little or no winning chances themselves, but potentially capable of causing a lot of nuisance value.

These loose cannons can for example take on a horse for the lead or prevent him from winning when they fold in the straight stopping him from getting a run. Because horses with minimal winning chances can have such terrible nuisance value is why you must take better odds about your "good things" in bigger fields.

Each way betting is also much less attractive. Surely it makes much more sense to get a quarter of the win odds for finishing in the first three in an eight horse field than to still take a quarter of the win odds for finishing in the first three in a 16 horse field?

Yet the bigger the field, the more punters are likely to adopt the "safety first" policy and bet each way. Invariably if your horse doesn't win it will also not place. How often have you heard punters say,"I was going to back it but chose that one instead," after their other selection wins at double figure odds, while their single each way bet misses a place in the big field?

As a general rule it is preferable in big fields to back two horses straight out for the win rather than one, each way. In fact, there is nothing wrong even backing three or four horses straight out for the win if the odds are right.

Caulfield racetrack, a shocker

On a rain affected Slow rated track last Saturday with the moveable rail out 10 metres, track bias again played its hand. Approaching the home turn jockeys were already going wide to avoid the rails.

In the last race of the day Divine Hope led comfortably by two lengths at the 150 and backers were counting their winnings. Unfortunately for them, the horse told apprentice Luke Currie that he didn't like racing wide, went to the inside rails and as a result Pareto got up and won the race by half a neck.

In the same race Tycoon Milly was plunged from $4.00 to $2.60 favourite. She had convincingly won both her races but had never raced on Slow or Heavy going. She was clearly under pressure by the home turn and hung in badly at the 150. However she did rally late and finished fourth, beaten just under a length. Still, a very skinny price for a horse not proven in the going. I guess punters assumed that as she was by Last Tycoon she would be a swimmer.

So was Moonee Valley

It was great cooperation by officials of both clubs when Moonee Valley put on the big public holiday Anzac Day meeting which Flemington called off the day before because of the state of their track.

However there had been a race meeting at Moonee Valley on the Saturday, only four days earlier. Moonee Valley had not prepared for this unexpected race meeting. The rail was kept in the True position and they raced on a Heavy track at Moonee Valley.

The rails was a no go zone. Jockeys were keeping clear well before the short Moonee Valley home straight. It surely is more than a coincidence that on the seven race programme the second, third, fourth and fifth races were won by horses starting from the widest barriers in the fields.

Be careful when you're looking at form from these meetings.

Next Page
Simple guidelines to tip winners
Hype horse does it again
Deadly betting combination

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