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Punt to Win |
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4/4/2003 edition Tote Value Bets Thorn Park wins, Northerly loses Thorn Park $1.65 favourite, won the Group 2 3YO Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill last Saturday. That win got many punters who followed the commonly accepted view of creating value by going all up on short priced tote favourites away to a flying start. Their "value" bet was of course taking the very popular and guaranteed poor value double Thorn Park into Northerly. That bet was wiped out in the following race when Northerly, backed into $1.40 favourite, went down by a short half head to second favourite, Republic Lass $8.00. Paradoxically, there was a value bet. On SuperTab the win dividends were $1.70 Thorn Park and $7.70 Republic Lass. Those win dividends were equivalent to a double paying only $13.10. But the Lohnro/Republic Lass double paid $23.40 on SuperTab. That is pretty close to getting a double $3.00 Thorn Park into $8.00 Republic Lass. Here are some clues on how to beat the tote crowd when betting doubles with short priced favourites. 1. If you take the short priced favourite to win in the first leg, then don't take the short priced favourite to win the second leg. It's possible you could get overs doing this. 2. If you can successfully beat the short priced favourite in the first leg you could get overs by taking your bet with the short priced favourite to win the second leg as many tote punters will have been wiped out. 3. The above is also a reason why if you go for plays like quadrellas you will get a much better dividend if a longshot wins the first race rather than the last race of the quaddie. Many punters will take the field or pretty close to it in the last race so if they get the first three legs in they've got the quaddie. But not many punters will take the field in the first or second leg of the quaddie. Bet differently from the crowd on the tote and you give yourself some show of beating the tote's rip off 20% take from many tote pools. Bet like the crowd on the tote and you can guarantee you'll be among the 98% of punters who lose money long term. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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