4/3/2006 edition

Blue Diamond Stakes Day

The David Hayes trained 2YO Colt, Nadeem, $19.80 won the 2006 one million dollars Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes held over 1200 metres at Caulfield racetrack last Saturday.

The nine race meeting commenced with a Good rated track. But very inclement weather meant the track was downgraded to Slow after race three and Heavy after race five.

Let's see, in race order, how the favourites fared:

Benko, $4.60 - 5/13
Centopia, $4.00 - 5/13
Aqua D'Amore, $4.20 - 7/11
God's Own, $1.95 - 2/8
Lad Of The Manor, $1.95 - 2/10
Due Sasso, $5.50 - 4/13
Perpugilliam, $3.00 - 8/11
Virage De Fortune, $2.40 - 2/11
Royal Lakes, $5.00 - 10/10

For punters the meeting was an absolute betting nightmare. These big feature meetings are usually very tough betting affairs. But when the rain comes the smart move is to stop betting.

Don't try and do what most punters do - look at the form guide to find the wet trackers and then start backing them. If only it was so easy to win. For starters the bookies reduce their odds and of course their odds are also reduced on the totes.

But amazingly it also just doesn't work backing the wet trackers. Plenty of them will dismally fail.

There is a very good reason. There is usually a huge difference between racing on a genuine Heavy track where there is no rain during the meeting and racing on a downgraded track with a sloppy, wet surface with persistent rain throughout the day.

In addition, races like the Blue Diamond, swhich was an extremely difficult betting race before the rain, became a farcical betting race on a Heavy, deteriorating track. Just consider these points alone:

1. Not one of the 13 two year olds had raced on a Heavy track. Only one of the horses had raced on a track rated worse than Dead!

2. Only two of the horses had raced four times. Four of the other 11 horses had only raced three times, six had only raced twice and there was one horse, the David Hayes trained filly Personify, that had only raced once.

Horses with very few starts are liable to put in surprise results or show sharp improvement.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Punting tips from the 2006 Blue Diamond Stakes Day meeting
Betting blunder - lay of the day
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/2/2006
Punt to Win index

2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

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