4/1/2002 edition

Betting Tips
Horses and Winning Strike Rates

Winners keep winning, losers keep losing

There's nothing surer in horse racing. Horses with excellent win strike rates will often surprise at double figure odds when they look out of their class. Horses with shocking win strike rates will continue to lose when you expect them to win and should not be backed at short odds.

Yet last Saturday in a restricted 1000 metres race at Cheltenham Helium was sent out the $4.50 favourite. Strike rate. Two wins from 32 starts. No thanks.

Helium led to the home turn, battled on well enough in the straight and finished second, beaten by two lengths. That is exactly why the five year old gelding has such a poor winning strike rate.

The winner, Pontevidra who paid up to $12.50 on the tote was first up from a spell of seven months. The five year old gelding was having his first start for new trainer Jeremy Gask. He also engaged leading South Australian rider, Travis Creek for the ride. Now that's a clue for you.

You only had to check any decent formguide to see that Pontevidra had five wins from 26 starts, was a first up winner and had won at the distance. At the odds he had to be a far superior bet to non winner Helium.

The horse has the class

Last Saturday Aflac was way down in class to a restricted 1350 metres handicap at Doomben. Three weeks earlier the five year old gelding was beaten under two lengths in a Group 3 handicap at the same track over 1200 metres. But he only carried 51.5kg. He also started at $26.00.

Last Saturday Aflac carried 58.5kg. He was sent out the $2.50 favourite in the seven horse field. He settled fourth, midfield on the rails. Ideally positioned. Yet he was under pressure by the home turn. He battled on well enough under the heavy weight but could not accelerate and finished fourth, beaten by nearly two lengths.

With 58.5kg. there was no way the horse was going to perform at the same level as three weeks earlier with only 51.5kg. The seven kilos weight rise saw to that.

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Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
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