3/12/2005 edition

Tote Betting Odds And Plunge Horses

"Now it's OK to bet that horse on the tote." Is it?

There was a big "go" on Rationalize at Rosehill last Saturday. In the bookmakers' betting ring Rationalize was backed in from $4.80 to $3.40 and comfortably won the race.

Here is what we heard a punter reportedly said to his betting mate who was wondering whether to back Rationalize shortly before the jump.

"Rationalize was very short on the tote at $3.60 but the $3.60s OK now because look at the money for it on track. If you back Rationalize now on the tote you're doing OK."

Our comment:

1. The bookmaker betting ring is not a tote. Punters get the price they take for the horse, not the price it starts at. So it is completely false logic to line up a tote price with a bookmaker price that has firmed significantly. You are not doing OK taking $3.60 tote odds because bookmaker odds have now come into $3.40 from $4.80. You have made a complete mess of your betting and missed out on the $4.80.

2. Rationalize paid $3.70 on UniTab tote and $3.60 on SuperTab.

3. $4.80 was freely available in the bookmaker betting ring for Rationalize.

4. A $100 tote bet at $3.60 on Rationalize returned $260 profit. The same bet at $4.80 on Rationalize with bookmakers returned $380 profit. That is an extra $120 or 46% extra profit.

5. Back one winner out of four at $4.80 in the bookmaker betting ring and you are making 20% profit on turnover.

6. Back that same one winner out of four at $3.60 on the tote and you are losing 10% on turnover.

The correct betting advice from the punter to his mate was:

"Rationalize is very short on the tote at $3.60 compared to the $4.80 that was available on track. It's poor betting value to take such big unders on the tote when much better odds were freely available on track."

Getting top odds about your selections and bets is just about as important as the selections themselves.

This edition of Punt to Win:
"It's OK now to bet that horse on the tote." Is it?
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill
Betting tips from the track: Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/11/2005
Punt to Win index

2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

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