3/10/2003 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

"Odds on look on"

This betting myth is based on the assumption that if a horse is odds on then it's "no value" so should not be backed and also that you don't back against a horse that is odds on because it's a "good thing", even though it's no "value".

Talk about a contradiction. Basically it also assumes that if a horse is odds on the punter has no way of assessing whether or not the odds are real value.

Horses that are odds on can be backed with confidence with correct form analysis. Last Saturday we assessed Lonhro as a $1.40 winning chance, wanted an overlay of 15% which gave a price of $1.60 and ended up getting $1.70.

Those were excellent value odds. Lonhro never looked in danger of losing and won by over two lengths.

However, when playing trifectas and first fours horses that are odds on wreck tote dividends. One reason is because so many punters follow the incorrect racing media advice and take the horse in a trifecta or first four to "get value".

It's impossible to create value in a betting pool which has around 20% deductions by basing your betting around the same horse as just about every other bettor.

If you use a horse that is odds on your only chance is to basically include horses with flukers' chances of running a place. Include the horses that on paper look most likely of placing and should you collect with these your payout will be big unders, very big unders. It certainly won't be "value".

This edition of Punt to Win:
Will Lonhro win the Cox Plate?
"Only mugs back favourites"
"Odds on look on"
Betting tips - strike rates, betting odds
Gai Waterhouse - punters beware
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/9/2003
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