3/10/2003 edition

Horse Racing Betting Myths

"Only mugs bet favourites"

Nothing can be further from the truth. The longshot bias in betting odds means that punters face a smaller disadvantage betting horses at the shorter end of the market.

Successful punters will back these horses because:

1. Form analysis will show the horse has the best winning chances in the race plus
2. The odds available must be value in relation to the horse's winning chances. Put simply, if you're getting $2.20 about the toss of a coin, then you have a value bet.

However:

1. Losing punters bet favourites indiscriminately.

2. Losing punters do not know whether the favourite is a true favourite or false favourite.

3. Losing punters take poor value odds about favourites.

4. Losing punters looking for "value" use flawed logic betting favourites. Because favourites win about 30% of races these punters think that by backing favourites which are at better percentage odds than 30% they will show a profit. So they back favourites at better odds than $3.33. All that happens is the winning strike rate of these favourites adjusts downwards so backing these favourites still loses money.

5. Losing punters use loss chasing staking plans betting favourites. If lucky, they can work for a while until the big losing run hits wiping out all past profits and more.

6. Losing punters will often back a favourite because a favourite is "due to win".

7. Losing punters will heavily back the last favourite of the day at a meeting as a "get out" bet.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Will Lonhro win the Cox Plate?
"Only mugs back favourites"
"Odds on look on"
Betting tips - strike rates, betting odds
Gai Waterhouse - punters beware
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/9/2003
Punt to Win index

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