3/9/2004 edition

Betting Run On Horses

"Behind the place getters the eye-catching run came from Shogun Lodge, who overcame the slow early pace to flash home for fifth just 21/2 lengths from the winner." Ray Hickson, Sunday Herald Sun, September 24, 2000

Look at recent horses that have dominated racing like Might And Power and Sunline. Look at the most consistent horses. They all usually have one thing in common. They either lead or settle on the pace.

A very successful punter we know called Tony only backs horses that lead or settle on the pace. He will never back a horse that has to come from behind. Once when we were having a talk he said, "Why all this fascination with losing horses finishing fast from the tail of the field? I'll tell you why. Because you don't need any special knowledge to spot a horse running on from last. What is wrong with a horse that leads or settles on the pace and goes down by a length or two? You need a good knowledge of horse racing to assess the merits of that run. The usual response is that it was given every chance and put in a poor run. Yet the horse that finishes fast from last and gets beaten by the same two lengths has put in a good run. That's absolutely crazy.

Of course horses tailing the field by 10 lengths at the 400 have to run fast final sectionals. If they don't they'll be beaten by 10 lengths. But they also have not worked earlier. It suits me fine.

Racing is about information, knowledge and opinion. As long as punters out there are happy to take short prices about run on horses and get impressed by those horses running on from last because they catch the eye I'll keep geting good odds about my horses. Let the media keep highlighting those horses running on from last to the punting public. I love it."

It was no surprise to find that Tony had a decent wager on Adam which led throughout and won at $13.00. But, according to Ray Hickson, it was Shogun Lodge that caught the eye in that race, flashing home for fifth, a beaten 9/4 favourite.

There is a lot of sense to Tony's views.
The horses that regularly have bad luck are your run on horses.
The horses that regularly have excuses made about why it was impossible to win because of the slow pace of the race are your run on horses.
The horses that regularly get affected by track bias, as most track bias results in tracks favouring leaders, are your run on horses.
Based on Punt to Win, 29/9/2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses resuming from a spell
Get those betting odds
Betting run on horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/8/2004
Punt to Win index

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