3/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Lightning Stakes - what a raffle

When there are so many unknown form factors, usually anything can and does win. And that is precisely what did happen in this 1000 metres, Group 3 set weights race for two and three year olds at Cheltenham last Saturday. Amongst other things, six of the 13 runners were resuming from a spell.

Two year old filly Regal Kiss, first up, started at the crazy odds of $1.90 after the $2.00 on offer was lapped up. She never got into the race and finished well down the track.

St. Petersburg, also first up, was at very cramped odds of only $5.50 considering he had to carry 57.5kg. and had barrier 13. He was wide throughout and his run should be ignored.

The winner Raja Lane paid $32.70. Compared with her last race three weeks earlier where she ran an excellent second, she had a weight drop from 57kg. to 49kg. and a much better barrier, seven instead of 13. Of course, she was up many kilos in class.

We rated the race and we do know that our members who look for horses at big odds in our ratings had a nice collect.

Slip on ice

Quite surprisingly there was some support for four year old gelding Walk On Ice in the 2040 metres Country Trainers Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday and he firmed a little to start at only $5.50.

Walk On Ice had an outstanding record on Heavy rated tracks with five wins from nine starts. However he had a very ordinary record at the distance of the race - only one placing from six starts. He also rose in weight from his last start third at Caulfield, where he carried 57kg. after the three kilos allowance for apprentice Adrian Patterson, to 60.5kg. on the Moonee Valley Heavy. It was a big ask.

Walk On Ice gave a bold sight. He settled on the speed and took the lead at the 400. However the 60.5kg. took its toll and he weakened to finish a comfortably beaten sixth.

In the same race Ekalaka, ridden by leading apprentice Vincent Hall was sent out the short $2.10 favourite. At his last start two weeks earlier he was a fast finishing fourth in the 1600 metres Listed Winter Championship at Flemington. He only carried 52.5kg. Now down in class, he was given the steadier of 56.5kg.

With 52.5kg. Ekalaka would have romped in. However weight increases are aimed at slowing down a horse. Forget the media cliche, "The horse has the class. It deserves the weight." Ekalaka took the lead in the straight and looked the winner. He was grabbed on the line by seven year old gelding Sovereign Court, who paid $16.10 and had only seven wins from 49 starts.

It was yet another case of punters taking unrealistically short odds about the horse who had the best winning chances in the race.

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