3/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Poor strike rate - short odds - poison if taken

Horses racing in the city with very poor winning strike rates are great to bet against, particularly if they are the favourite. Of course you need to be selective. Often the rest of the field are very ordinary as well and it is best to leave the race alone.

In the opening race at Cheltenham last Saturday, a 2464 metres plodders' handicap, Hobart, who had managed only seven wins from 53 starts, was sent out the $2.20 favourite after plenty of punters thought the $2.40 was too good to resist! He settled well back in the field and being very one paced plodded into a well beaten second.

At Eagle Farm that notorious money muncher, Philidor, with a paltry one win and only a further three placings from 20 starts was sent out the $3.00 favourite in a 2200 metres restricted race after plenty of punters thought the $3.20 on offer was a good price. Because Philidor is trained by Bart Cummings punters have regularly thrown their money away backing this proven loser.

There was a bit of media hype for him as well, with the consensus being that having won his last race by over three lengths the horse had turned the corner and would continue to win. Such misplaced confidence.

Philidor looked the winner in the straight when he shot clear, but as you would expect of a horse with one win from 20 starts he found a way to lose the race and finished second.

You will save a lot of money by not backing poor strike rate horse at short odds. You can then place that money on horses at better odds with better winning strike rates.

After the race, Sky Racing's Graham Macneice told viewers if you had boxed the four Sky rated horses you got the trifecta. On the Queensland tote the trifecta paid $145.00.

Short priced tote favourites kill trifectas.
Boxing short priced tote favourites in trifectas will not make a profit in the long term.

Flemington - punters' graveyard

Flemington lived up to that last Wednesday with their terrible, midweek betting meeting on a rain affected, Slow track with the rail out eight metres.

Just look at some of the winners from the eight races:
Dancing Reality $39.20 - two wins from 34 races and beaten by a combined total of over 20 lengths at her last two races.
Badger's Wood $36.20 - won a Class 2 at Donald at his last start. That was good enough to win the 3YO Open.
Princess Abassi $342.40 - the two year old filly was first up from a spell. Last campaign in her only two races, both in the country, she was beaten by a combined total of over 20 lengths.

It's tough enough backing winners at the best of times without throwing money away on the Flemington mud with fast lanes and slow lanes.

Punters who fluked Princess Abassi for first in their trifectas - (what else could it be?), would have rightly expected a massive payout. There were after all 14 runners in the field.

Well, if they had the trifecta on SuperTab $7430 or the New South Wales tote, a paltry $4741, they had every right to feel disappointed. It's not every year a horse at $300 finishes first. The Queensland tote was a little more realistic, and paid $28,430.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Identify poor value bets - save your money
Lightning Stakes - what a raffle

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