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Punt to Win |
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3/5/2002 edition Betting Tips Backmarkers - get value Horses who do not race on the speed need more luck in their races than on pace runners. That means you must take better odds about them than you would an on pace horse with similar form. At Eagle Farm on Anzac Day the John Hawkes trained 3YO filly Harveynicks was taking on the older mares in a Class 6 event over 1300 metres. She was also a backmarker and had a poor barrier 10, in the field of 12. On the Queensland tote Harveynicks was showing odds on $1.90. She never looked like winning. Eliminate poor value bets like that and you must do better overall. While we're talking about getting value odds, with the jumps season back in earnest in Melbourne, the same applies. In hurdles and steeples you have to allow for accidents in the running. That means if you must bet in these races you have to get more generous odds. Punters on the favourite in the 3200 metres hurdle at Moonee Valley last Saturday, City Of Gold, saw the jockey, Brian Constable, thrown at the second hurdle. Race over, money lost. Turning tracks - short runs to turn Doomben is a tight turning track. The 1010 metres start is also very tough on horses with wide barriers. There is only a short run to the first turn. If a favoured runner is drawn wide the jockeys on the inside usually keep pushing up to make that horse work hard and to keep the horse wide. So was the case at Doomben last Saturday with Paralo, the $3.20 favourite in a 2YO Colts and Geldings Open. The colt had barrier eight of eight and was trapped three wide throughout outside the leaders. After briefly hitting the lead in the straight Paralo weakened to finish second, beaten over a length. With an inside barrier it would have been a different story. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Remember
short priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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