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3/4/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 27th. March, 2010. On this day the $500,000 3YO. Group 1 Rosehill Guineas was held at Rosehill horse racing track.

Caulfield: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Swooper
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darryl Dodson
Winner: Savarain
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: About Ready
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Avionics
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Red Flair
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Zedi Knight
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Brendan McCarthy
Winner: Orbit Express
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.80
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Steve McKinnon


Morphettville: Track Good

R8 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: The Fugitive
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips on making money betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Jockeys + Odds + Form horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Australian Cup Day - 13/3/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/3/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 13/3/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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