2/11/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Strategy

Four betting traps to avoid

1. It happens all the time

The first at Doomben was a 2YO Open over 1010 metres. Seven of the nine starters were unraced. Announcer, with no public trial form, was sent out the short $2.25 favourite, even shorter on the tote.

He finished a well held third. The winner, Sir Breakfast, with no money for him in the betting ring, paid $16.70. He came from a strong stable, being trained by Bill Mitchell at Eagle Farm. Any advice, as is commonly the case, to follow the betting in two year old races, was way off the mark

Four betting traps to avoid

2. Fast track risk

It is always risky taking very short odds about two year olds racing against very lightly or unraced opposition. It is even more so on a Fast rated track. Two year olds jar up and go shin sore. Huge form reversal - money lost.

So at Rosehill, Planchet with top odds of $2.00 available in the betting ring, was a definite risk. As for tote punters the $1.60 payout across the country was nothing short of ridiculous. You have to win two out of every three times just to break even!!

Of course, after the race, which the Canny Lad colt bolted in by over four lengths, despite being held up early in the straight, $2.00 looked quite generous. But that's after the race. More often than not it doesn't work out like that.

Four betting traps to avoid

3. More than Words Of Magic needed

Later in the day at Rosehill in a very open restricted handicap over 1100 metres Tim Martin's promising four year old gelding Words Of Magic, (three wins from four starts), was sent out the short priced $2.10 favourite.

Compared to his last start he had the dreaded double whammy of negatives:

1. Weight rise from 52kg. to 54.5kg. (At least the weight is still not too bad.)
2. Bad barrier compared to previous start: previous start three, this start 11.

Words Of Magic had to work a little to get the lead. As a result he was headed near the line and finished third, beaten by nearly a length. Horses with the above two negative form factors are usually risky bets. When they are sent out at short odds they are just about guaranteed long term losing bets.

Four betting traps to avoid

4. Beware this bet at Moonee Valley

Moonee Valley is very much a specialist's horse racing track. Horses drawn barrier one who are not fast starters are in trouble. They will very likely be boxed in on the rails and with only a short straight not have time to get out.

That is why Defier was such a poor value bet at Moonee Valley last Saturday when he was backed in to $2.90 favourite in a Group 2 Handicap over 1600 metres.

He is very much a horse who settles off the speed. But he had drawn barrier one and there were 14 runners in the field. He settled well back on the rails, was caught in an awkward position and ran on nicely for sixth, beaten by two lengths. He was never a winning chance once he was trapped on the rails, well back in the big field.

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Short Priced Tote Favourites
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