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2/9/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. August.

Randwick: Track Dead

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Carael Boy
Result: first
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Bob Milligan

Moonee Valley: Track Slow

R3 $50,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Al Garhood
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Doomben: Track Good

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bikkie Tin Blues
Result: first
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctuation: $1.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Brian Smith

Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $20,000 3YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Vicello
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Tip The Dip
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting selection criteria
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Moonee Valley
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 26/8/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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