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2/8/2002 edition

Shaye Spice
Was She a Value Bet?

Last Saturday everyone was pushing Shaye Spice as a "good thing". She didn't let them down, convincingly winning at Moonee Valley. Consider these points:

Negatives:
1. Shaye Spice had top weight of 58kg.
2. Shaye Spice was not just taking on the mares, she was in an Open Handicap.
3. Shaye Spice started from barrier 10 in the field of 10 over the 1200 metres.
4. The betting public regarded her as a "moral".

Positives:
1. Leading jockey Damien Oliver had the ride.
2. Shaye Spice had five wins and another two placings from seven starts at the track, as well as seven wins and another four placings over the distance.

Because Shaye Spice was such an obvious winner, despite the negatives, she was not value. Top fluctuation in the betting ring was only $2.80. That was a luxury compared to the New South Wales tote win dividend of a paltry $2.10.

As a general rule, provided you can find genuine value elsewhere, it makes sense long term to take on short priced mares with all the negatives that Shaye Spice had. Otherwise leave the race alone.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting with tips everyone knows
John Hawkes' - trainers' premiership
Was Shaye Spice a value bet?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Betting tips comment
Two betting tips for value
Trainer watch - up and coming trainer
Money talks - Randwick, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/7/2002
Punt to Win index

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Top Marc 30.10 43.60 $1350
Superfine 20.30 25.20 $490
The Kildare Kid 13.10 15.10 $200

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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