2/7/2005 edition

Poor Betting Races

Betting to win - which races?

Races held over distances of 1000 metres and over 2000 metres regularly produce upset results. It is important to be aware of this before you bet in these races. They need to be selected with great care.

The 1000 metres dashes are regularly filled with horses resuming from a spell primed for just that race. With two and three year olds there are often so many query form factors that decent analysis of the race is next to impossible. The bigger the field, the bigger the lottery. When you throw in track queries like which side of the straight is better at Flemington or Victoria Park racetrack you are often best not even wasting your time looking at the race.

The middle distance and distance races tend to have many inconsistent gallopers. There are also horses that are looking for more distance in their preparation after earlier runs at shorter distances. These horses are gradually racing into form. That alone makes form assessment difficult. What key runs will you use for some of the horses when assessing their chances?

Barriers are also very important. An on pace horse with a wide barrier is often at a big disadvantage. Some racing publications tell you that because of the distance of the race barriers are not important. That is incorrect. There is nothing worse than being trapped three or four wide for 2000 metres or 3200 metres. Of course barriers are important in the Melbourne Cup.

A top jockey can often set the pace of the race and lead all the way on a bolter. Then again that same top jockey can be on an inconsistent animal that looks the best of a very ordinary field and that horse puts in a performance many lengths inferior to recent runs.

Here is a typical story from a very mediocre 2600 metres race run at Morphettville some time ago. Professionals we know very, very rarely bet in these low standard Adelaide affairs. They throw up different winners every race.

Sure enough the race was an upset, won by six year old gelding, Starpro. At his previous start over 2000 metres he was beaten by 10 lengths and started at $101. He had raced 30 times for three placings and one win.

The $1.80 favourite in the race was The Rampager. He had won his previous start convincingly by over two lengths. Punters fooled themselves into thinking he'd do it again. This time in he'd had eight runs for only one win and a career record of six placings and four wins from 31 starts. That record made him an odds on favourite!

This edition of Punt to Win:
Poor betting races
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
Longshot quick pick betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/6/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Best Tote Odds?

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