2/7/2004 edition

Gai Waterhouse "Good Things"

What a disastrous day for punters backing trainer Gai Waterhouse's shortest priced horses, all favourites, at Warwick Farm last Saturday. Here's how the day unfolded:

Wild Queen
Firmed from $1.50 to $1.45 strong odds on favourite
Finished third of six

How many of you knew the filly had been lame only eight days earlier?

There is now a Stewards inquiry. After the race, the filly was found to be lame in the off-foreleg after cooling down. The filly was also presented at the races with both front joints taped.

According to the Stewards' report, Ms. T Rouse, who represented Gai Waterhouse, told the Stewards that there had been some filling in the off-foreleg following its trial win at Warwick Farm on June 18, eight days earlier, but an ultrasound that day had cleared the filly of any injury. The Stewards asked why that condition and information had not been reported to them. The Stewards enquiry was adjourned for the Stable to provide records of the veterinary examinations held on Friday, 18 June and for more details of Wild Queen's lameness after Saturday's race to be reported.

That all begs the important question:

If the public had been told about Wild Queen being lame eight days earlier would punters have backed Wild Queen as if she was a certainty?

Should punters be told that a horse was lame only eight days before its current race? Should punters be able to confidently back horses knowing that training setbacks like lameness must be are public knowledge?

Here is how the rest of the day panned out for the short priced Gai Waterhouse trained horses. In view of what happened to Wild Queen, it is quite natural to wonder whether any of the form reversals from the poorest performers were because of ailments that were not reported to the Stewards.

Lilly O'Reilly
Eased from $4.00 to $5.50 third favourite
Won

Fictitious Lady
Started as $3.70 favourite
Finished fifth of eight

Winning Master
Firmed from $3.50 to $3.30 favourite
Finished second of ten

Court Of Appeal
Firmed from $4.00 to $3.50 favourite
Finished fifth of nine

Every horse that met with enough support to firm in the betting ring lost. The bookies would have been laughing. We've noted in the past how money for Gai Waterhouse trained horses often seems to be irrelevant.

Sometimes you wonder whether you should resort to a system-like rule such as, "Eliminate any horses trained by....". Then fill the space with the trainers whose horses you tend to lose most on, when betting them.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Gai Waterhouse - betting the "good things"
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/6/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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