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2/2/2001 edition
Beware Racetrack Changes
Probably the most difficult punting days are those where
you have track downgrades caused by rain. One such day was last Friday
for the big Australia Day meeting at Caulfield.
The track was rated Dead in the morning. However the Melbourne
weather looked promising and this meant the track was most likely going
to be on the better side of Dead with every chance of an upgrade to Good.
Instead heavy rain set in and after the second race which was clearly
run on a genuinely Slow track the track was officially downgraded to Slow.
How can you possibly be expected to pick winners if you are a serious
punter when all your form analysis is down the drain because of a major
track downgrade? Especially if you were anticipating a track closer to
Good. On top of that races were altered due to late scratchings and pronounced
wet track bias. The inside rail at Caulfield very quickly became a "no
go" zone.
Of course when tracks are downgraded a typical scene is the rush of
punters checking out their formguides for any horses with the slightest
wet track form. Nothing will deter these punters who must have a go no
matter how much conditions are against them. Punters we know who work
full time at the game know that much more than a quick glance at a form
guide is needed to be able to win at racing.
Horses out of Rory's Jester are absolute duffers on rain affected
tracks. Only about one in a hundred is any good. Yet punters keep falling
for the same mistake. They keep supporting these horses when they are
untried in rain affected going and keep getting wiped out.
There is a well known handicapping dictum:
"Never penalise a horse because of something it has not done."
The smart handicappers we know dismiss that. They will, for example, heavily
penalise any Rory's Jester on rain affected going until it is proven in
the going.
Last Saturday at Caulfield punters threw their money away
on these Rory's Jester horses without wet track form:
1. Undefeated filly Exclusive Jewel was backed in from $3.30 to
$2.60. She finished 14 lengths last!
2. Promising two year old colt Obadele started at $3.30. He
finished fourth, beaten by over six lengths.
A great betting rule of thumb:
On a genuine dead track or worse never back a Rory's Jester horse until
it has proven wet track form. If the track is Slow or Heavy it must also
be proven in those conditions.
If you follow this you will save a lot of money.
Also it is important not to be tempted by big money on those Rory's Jester
horses untried in the wet. It is easy to assume that it must be insider
money knowing the horse can handle the conditions. The professionals we
know say it is "wealthy mug money".
The money usually stays in the bookies' bags!
Next: Punt to Win 26/1/2001
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