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Punt to Win |
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1/11/2002 edition Betting Tips One of the keys to successful betting is identifying when a horse is worth backing. That means knowing when the bet is value. The other day I spoke to a casual punter who successfully backed the Cox Plate winner, Northerly. I said, "The odds of $3.70 looked a bit skinny," to which he replied, "It was either going to be Northerly or Sunline winning. That's not bad odds for a 50% winning chance." I politely pointed out that there were another seven runners in the field, all with varying chances of winning. It is because many punters dismiss horses outright as having no chances of winning that they accept ridiculously short odds about many of their bets, which ensures they must lose money long term. So the number one rule is to accept that every horse in a race has some chances, however small, of winning the race. It is also important to know what percentage chances, to at least break even, you are accepting when you make a bet. If you divide 100 by the dollar odds available you will know the percentage chances of winning that you need for your bet to break even over the long term. For example if the available odds were $2.00 and you made the bet, you have accepted that your bet has at least a 50% chance of winning. That also means you are giving the other runners between them a maximum of 50% chances of winning. If you took $4.00, have accepted that your bet has at least a 25% chance of winning. That also means you are giving the other runners between them a maximum of 75% chances of winning. When you start looking at your bets like that it becomes much easier to decide whether or not you are getting value. Consider the case of Deprave who was sent out as $3.50 favourite in the final race of the day at Moonee Valley last Saturday. Divide 100 by 3.50 and punters were giving Deprave at least a 28.57% chance of winning. That also means they were giving the other 11 runners a maximum of 71.43% chances of winning - an average of 6.48% per horse. All you had to do was look through the field and see there were a number of other very genuine winning chances to realise that at $3.50 Deprave was very much under the odds. As it was, bad luck in running could not have been factored into Deprave's price. Deprave lost his jockey on jumping away and punters did their money cold, right at the start! This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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