1/9/2000 edition

Winning and Losing Runs

How many punters will phone a 1900 number tipping service on a Saturday which responsibly advertises a couple of selections as strong bets, find out that they do lose then never phone the service again because it was no good?

They may well be right about the service being no good, but a few losing selections normally doesn't prove much. These punters most likely do not understand horse selection or losing runs. They probably expect every selection must win or the tip was no good.

The successful punter can cope with and understand losing runs.
The fact is very little is written anywhere about losing runs because everyone is telling punters how easy it is to win.
Losing runs need to be understood in relation to the average price of the horses you back. If the average price of the horses you back is 2/1 then a losing run of two is no different to a losing run of 10 for someone whose average priced selection backed is 10/1. In both cases it takes just one winner to recover the losses from the losing run.

Working out the maths for runs of losing bets or winning bets is quite easy. For example if your next two bets are a true 3/1 chance and a true 5/1 chance what are the odds for both selections losing? The 3/1 chance has three out of four losing chances and the 5/1 chance five out of six losing chances. So you multiply 3/4 x 5/6 = 15/24. This converts to over 62%. It is odds on that both horses will lose.
And what are the chances for both selections winning? The 3/1 chance has one out of four winning chances and the 5/1 chance one out of six winning chances. So you multiply 1/4 x 1/6 = 1/24. You have one chance in 24 or the odds are 23/1 against you having both selections win.

What happens in wide open races with big fields?
Many punters like to back horses at big odds in these races, mistakenly believing they get better value in these races. Their selections will invariably average out at being true 10/1 winning chances or even worse. Multiplying 10/11 x 10/11 will give you 100/121 which is over an 80% chance for two selections losing in a row. What are the chances of five bets losing in a row? Multiply 10/11 x 10/11 x 10/11 x 10/11 x 10/11. The answer is 100,000/161,051 which is over 62%. It is strong odds on that there will be a losing run of five bets.

Once you understand the maths of losing runs and winning runs you are well on the way to becoming a much more successful punter. You will the also see the dangers involved in staking plans designed to turn a level stakes loss into profits. 

Next: Punt to Win 25/8/2000

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