1/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Loose canons - recognise them

We've said it before, we'll say it again. The bigger the field the longer the odds you need about the "good things" in those races.

The reason is there are more horses in the race, many who have virtually no chance of winning, but a good chance of randomly wrecking things for the best horses in a race - stopping them getting a run, taking them on for the lead and so on. They are like loose canons or minefields. You never know when they are going to strike!

Last Saturday in the $100,000 Doomben Roses, a 2020 metres 3YO Filllies Listed race, Life Is Beautiful started at only $4.00. Out quickly from barrier 15 in the big field she went to the lead. Only problem was that Dainty, a $151.00 bolter took her on for the lead. They were going hammer and tongs at each other and it was not until the 1000 that Life Is Beautiful was able to shake off Dainty, who folded and finished last.

Life Is Beautiful was then challenged by Ethereal at the 300 and headed by that filly near the line. If Dainty had not been in that field Life Is Beautiful would have led comfortably and won the race.

The more horses in a race, the more chances there are of a horse with no serious winning chances wrecking the chances of one of the best horses in the race.

By the way, what were punters doing taking $2.25 about Arrabeea in that race? Taking very short odds about a backmarker in a big field at Doomben with the rail out is asking for trouble.

Class jockeys

You only had to see Damien Oliver's ride on De Gaulle Lane in the $100,000 Rough Habit Plate, a 2020 metres 3YO Listed race at Doomben last Saturday.

Good jockeys are aware of the horses around them. They make their moves at the right time, minimise bad luck for their horses and by their riding skills create bad luck for other horses.

In the desperately close finish Damien Oliver held his line outside Pimpala Player, but did not leave enough room for Altiero, ridden by Lenny Beasley, to squeeze through. That won the race for De Gaulle Lane. Altiero was desperately unlucky and in hindsight Lenny Beasley should have tried to get off the rails much earlier.

If jockeys had been reversed there is not much doubt that Altiero would have won and won easily.

Trainers' tips - beware

Punters in New Zealand apparently are not very happy. The other week Taranaki trainer Kevin Myers said his jumper Stacey Jones would not be suited by the Heavy track and would struggle to win.

Stacey Jones, $6.00, led throughout and won easily. After the race Kevin Myers admitted he told the owner, who likes to have a bet, that the horse was a top chance.

The New Zealand Trainers' Association president, Chris Wood also supported Kevin Myers, saying a trainer's responsibility is to the owners who pay the bills, not to the punters.

We have discussed this issue with smart punters and connections. All agree that trainers' responsibilities are to owners, noone else. These smart punters usually do not even bother to listen to trainers' comments. They know that not one trainer who wants to continue training horses for any owner/punter will spill the beans to the media.

In Australia there are many ways trainers talk about their horses while basically telling the public nothing. For example:

"I'm happy with the horse but it's a tough race. He'll need a lot of luck. There are plenty of other chances."
Then there are trainers like Gai Waterhouse who are generally optimistic about the chances of every runner? If you say every one of your runners is a great show you are probably effectively telling the public nothing.

Next: Punt to Win 25/5/2001
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