1/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Winners get value - example one

In the first race at Doomben, a 3YO Fillies Open over 1350 metres, Past Blast was all the rage. One of the typical media "expert" comments was:

"Past Blast can get punters off on a winning note in Brisbane. She thrashed a similar field last start with an all the way 2.8l. win over 1200m. at Doomben on May 7. She's untried at the 1350m. but should lead without any problems and prove tough to catch."

Past Blast rose in weight a hefty two kilos to 57.5kg. That didn't seem to concern most punters or the racing media. She was sent out the $2.35 favourite.

Past Blast was unable to lead. But she did have a soft run outside the leader in a slowly run affair. The weight increase told and she finished fourth.

Winners get value - example two

In the second race at Randwick, a restricted 1550 metres affair, three year old gelding Midnight Avenue was sent out at $1.80 against the older gallopers. He missed the start and never got into the race. The seven horse field produced a major upset with Lord Denning the $14.60 winner.

Lord Denning, a former John Size trained galloper, was having his first run for the Hawkes stable. As John Size is shortly going to Hong Kong to train, horses are being removed at a rapid rate from his stable. Some horses that have performed well for John Size will never again reach those performance levels. The problem is, which horses? It will make betting in Sydney just that more difficult.

Winners get value - example three

Bella Signorina had put in a fast finishing, eye catching third on May 12 carrying 53.5kg.

Last Saturday, in the second race at Victoria Park, a 3YO Fillies Class 6 over 1000 metres:
1. She rose in weight to 56kg.
2. She had a significant jockey change. Instead of well performed Victorian hoop Peter Mertens, local South Australian, Dean Cleaver, took the mount.
3. The track was Slow. She had finished a well held fourth in her only run on rain affected going.
4. There were six other lightly raced fillies in the race. Two were well bred first starters and two were resuming from a spell, and open to dramatic improvement.
5. Despite all that she was considered virtually unbeatable. She was sent out at the prohibitive odds of $1.25.
6. Punters backing horses at those odds would have to get an 80% winning strike rate just to break even.

Bello Signorina missed the start, did not handle the conditions, settled last and stayed there.

Larry Olsen, you can do better than that

The third race at Doomben was a Fillies and Mares Open over 1200 metres. Larry Olsen made Classic Cliche his top selection. Consider these points:

1. The six year old mare was dropping back in distance to 1200 metres from a 1500 metres race only three weeks earlier.
2. At her last start she was beaten by 12 lengths.
3. For being beaten by 12 lengths she rose in weight from 54kg. to 56kg.

In the 11 horse field Classic Cliche found the pace too hot. She did well to finish fourth.

By the way, I would be very wary of following Larry Olsen or anyone else who gives tips "on looks alone". You cannot win long term at racing by ignoring form and just checking out how a horse looks. There are plenty of very good looking horses that will never win a maiden.

Doomben Cup - an upset was likely

The $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age event run over 2020 metres was the big feature race at last Saturday's meeting. Shogun Lodge was sent out the $1.65 favourite.

The race looked a trap race for taking short odds about anything. Why?

Most punters are aware of the racing style of Maltese Beauty. He sets a fast pace, leads by the length of the straight, and invariably folds. Occasionally he steals a race like in September 1999 when, starting at $13.00, he won the Group 2 Newcastle Gold Cup over 2400 metres.

When a field is broken up the chances of an upset result increase. Maltese Beauty led the Doomben Cup field by 10 lengths, with Go Flash Go, who also likes to set a solid pace, running second, leading the rest of the field by another five lengths. An upset looked on the cards. By the home turn Maltese Beauty, out of gas, still led by seven lengths.

King Keitel was making his move as they entered the shortish Doomben home straight, while Shogun Lodge was spotting him five lengths. Despite running on well, when the finishing post was reached King Keitel was still over a length in front of Shogun Lodge, who finished second.

King Keitel paid $18.70 for the win on the New South Wales tote. We also gave King Keitel as a tip to our High Flyer members.

Next page
Class jockeys
Loose canons - recognise them
Trainers' tips - beware

Top Odds Are Important

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