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Punt to Win |
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1/4/2006 edition What is a Safe Betting Bank? What is a safe bank for betting on horses? Is there even such a thing? For the purposes of this article we will assume that the selections at least break even and odds significantly inferior to what are available are not regularly taken about them. If the selections are just plain poor then they must lose long term. If horses are backed at odds below their true winning chances, it means those horses must return a long term loss. That means any betting bank over the long term only head in one direction - down to zero. Many punters over the years have been misled into believing that you can safely bet five per cent of a bank and turn it into a fortune by some marketers of horse racing information. Betting 5% non-reducing of a bank is mathematically guaranteed to wipe you out. That is only 20 betting units and even the best selection methods will lose 20 units during an extended bad run. Some years ago I spoke to a punter who started using a selection and betting method with a bank of $500 and $20 bets. As the bank increased the bet size was proportionally increased. All was fine and the bank increased to $5000 with $200 bets. Then a bad run came and all the profits disappeared. With level stakes betting there would have still been a profit. But the real problem was that betting 4% non-reducing of a bank was simply just too much. The bet size was simply too high. It did not allow for a perfectly normal, statistical bad run. Well then, what is a safe bet percentage of a bank to bet? This edition of Punt to Win: 2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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