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1/3/2002 edition

Carnival Racing Betting Odds

With the Autumn Carnival now on in full swing it is only too easy to listen to the media and back the horse everyone is writing up and talking about.

There are many large fields and wide open races which should really be around $10.00 the field. If you back the horses that everyone is talking about you can guarantee poor value betting odds.

Carnival betting odds

1. The Group 1 Oakleigh Plate run at Caulfield last Saturday was a case in point. It was a wide, open race with 18 runners and many winning chances. Yet the much hyped up Freedman trained Chong Tong with Damien Oliver to ride was sent out at the ridiculously short odds of $4.20.

After missing the start Chong Tong settled well back in the field and never looked a winning chance. Chong Tong was never a realistic 25% winning chance in the race.

Sudurka won the race and paid up to $34.30. It is only too easy to say "What great value" after the race because there were numerous other realistic winning chances. But Sudurka did have the past form on the board and it made far more betting sense to have a small bet on the five year old horse at those odds than back Chong Tong at around $4.00.

Next pages
Carnival racing betting odds
Money talks
 Future winners at big odds
Betting packages

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Storm Grass 3.50 5.50 80% $200
Spurn 4.50 6.50 57% $200
Hosannah 3.60 5.50 74% $190
Mr. Magoo 4.70 6.50 49% $180
Snowland 2.00 2.90 90% $90
Rapid Waters 2.10 3.00 82% $90
Tie The Knot 1.90 2.30 44% $40


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